feat: "Make It Actually Useful" sprint — observability + Phase 10

Pipeline observability:
- Retrieval harness runs nightly (Step E in batch-extract.sh)
- Pipeline summary persisted to project state after each run
  (pipeline_last_run, pipeline_summary, retrieval_harness_result)
- Dashboard enhanced: interaction total + by_client, pipeline health
  (last_run, hours_since, harness results, triage stats), dynamic
  project list from registry

Phase 10 — reinforcement-based auto-promotion:
- auto_promote_reinforced(): candidates with reference_count >= 3 and
  confidence >= 0.7 auto-graduate to active
- expire_stale_candidates(): candidates unreinforced for 14+ days
  auto-rejected to prevent unbounded queue growth
- Both wired into nightly cron (Step B2)
- Batch script: scripts/auto_promote_reinforced.py (--dry-run support)

Knowledge seeding:
- scripts/seed_project_state.py: 26 curated Trusted Project State
  entries across p04-gigabit, p05-interferometer, p06-polisher,
  atomizer-v2, abb-space, atocore (decisions, requirements, facts,
  contacts, milestones)

Tests: 299 → 303 (4 new Phase 10 tests)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

scripts/auto_promote_reinforced.py

@@ -0,0 +1,79 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""Auto-promote reinforced candidates + expire stale ones.
+
+Phase 10: reinforcement-based auto-promotion. Candidates referenced
+by 3+ interactions with confidence >= 0.7 graduate to active.
+Candidates unreinforced for 14+ days are auto-rejected.
+
+Usage:
+    python3 scripts/auto_promote_reinforced.py [--base-url URL] [--dry-run]
+"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import argparse
+import json
+import os
+import sys
+
+# Allow importing from src/ when run from repo root
+sys.path.insert(0, os.path.join(os.path.dirname(__file__), "..", "src"))
+
+from atocore.memory.service import auto_promote_reinforced, expire_stale_candidates
+
+
+def main() -> None:
+    parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="Auto-promote + expire candidates")
+    parser.add_argument("--dry-run", action="store_true", help="Report only, don't change anything")
+    parser.add_argument("--min-refs", type=int, default=3, help="Min reference_count for promotion")
+    parser.add_argument("--min-confidence", type=float, default=0.7, help="Min confidence for promotion")
+    parser.add_argument("--expire-days", type=int, default=14, help="Days before unreinforced candidates expire")
+    args = parser.parse_args()
+
+    if args.dry_run:
+        print("DRY RUN — no changes will be made")
+        # For dry-run, query directly and report
+        from atocore.models.database import get_connection
+        from datetime import datetime, timedelta, timezone
+
+        cutoff_promote = (datetime.now(timezone.utc) - timedelta(days=args.expire_days)).strftime("%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S")
+        cutoff_expire = cutoff_promote
+
+        with get_connection() as conn:
+            promotable = conn.execute(
+                "SELECT id, content, memory_type, project, confidence, reference_count "
+                "FROM memories WHERE status = 'candidate' "
+                "AND COALESCE(reference_count, 0) >= ? AND confidence >= ? "
+                "AND last_referenced_at >= ?",
+                (args.min_refs, args.min_confidence, cutoff_promote),
+            ).fetchall()
+            expirable = conn.execute(
+                "SELECT id, content, memory_type, project "
+                "FROM memories WHERE status = 'candidate' "
+                "AND COALESCE(reference_count, 0) = 0 AND created_at < ?",
+                (cutoff_expire,),
+            ).fetchall()
+
+        print(f"\nWould promote {len(promotable)} candidates:")
+        for r in promotable:
+            print(f"  [{r['memory_type']}] refs={r['reference_count']} conf={r['confidence']:.2f} | {r['content'][:80]}...")
+        print(f"\nWould expire {len(expirable)} stale candidates:")
+        for r in expirable:
+            print(f"  [{r['memory_type']}] {r['project'] or 'global'} | {r['content'][:80]}...")
+        return
+
+    promoted = auto_promote_reinforced(
+        min_reference_count=args.min_refs,
+        min_confidence=args.min_confidence,
+    )
+    expired = expire_stale_candidates(max_age_days=args.expire_days)
+
+    print(f"promoted={len(promoted)} expired={len(expired)}")
+    if promoted:
+        print(f"Promoted IDs: {promoted}")
+    if expired:
+        print(f"Expired IDs: {expired}")
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    main()