feat: "Make It Actually Useful" sprint — observability + Phase 10

Pipeline observability:
- Retrieval harness runs nightly (Step E in batch-extract.sh)
- Pipeline summary persisted to project state after each run
  (pipeline_last_run, pipeline_summary, retrieval_harness_result)
- Dashboard enhanced: interaction total + by_client, pipeline health
  (last_run, hours_since, harness results, triage stats), dynamic
  project list from registry

Phase 10 — reinforcement-based auto-promotion:
- auto_promote_reinforced(): candidates with reference_count >= 3 and
  confidence >= 0.7 auto-graduate to active
- expire_stale_candidates(): candidates unreinforced for 14+ days
  auto-rejected to prevent unbounded queue growth
- Both wired into nightly cron (Step B2)
- Batch script: scripts/auto_promote_reinforced.py (--dry-run support)

Knowledge seeding:
- scripts/seed_project_state.py: 26 curated Trusted Project State
  entries across p04-gigabit, p05-interferometer, p06-polisher,
  atomizer-v2, abb-space, atocore (decisions, requirements, facts,
  contacts, milestones)

Tests: 299 → 303 (4 new Phase 10 tests)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

tests/test_memory.py

@@ -186,3 +186,98 @@ def test_memories_for_context_empty(isolated_db):
     text, chars = get_memories_for_context()
     assert text == ""
     assert chars == 0
+
+
+# --- Phase 10: auto-promotion + candidate expiry ---
+
+
+def _get_memory_by_id(memory_id):
+    """Helper: fetch a single memory by ID."""
+    from atocore.models.database import get_connection
+    with get_connection() as conn:
+        row = conn.execute("SELECT * FROM memories WHERE id = ?", (memory_id,)).fetchone()
+    return dict(row) if row else None
+
+
+def test_auto_promote_reinforced_basic(isolated_db):
+    from atocore.memory.service import (
+        auto_promote_reinforced,
+        create_memory,
+        reinforce_memory,
+    )
+
+    mem_obj = create_memory("knowledge", "Zerodur has near-zero CTE", status="candidate", confidence=0.7)
+    mid = mem_obj.id
+    # reinforce_memory only touches active memories, so we need to
+    # promote first to reinforce, then demote back to candidate —
+    # OR just bump reference_count + last_referenced_at directly
+    from atocore.models.database import get_connection
+    from datetime import datetime, timezone
+    now = datetime.now(timezone.utc).strftime("%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S")
+    with get_connection() as conn:
+        conn.execute(
+            "UPDATE memories SET reference_count = 3, last_referenced_at = ? WHERE id = ?",
+            (now, mid),
+        )
+
+    promoted = auto_promote_reinforced(min_reference_count=3, min_confidence=0.7)
+    assert mid in promoted
+    mem = _get_memory_by_id(mid)
+    assert mem["status"] == "active"
+
+
+def test_auto_promote_reinforced_ignores_low_refs(isolated_db):
+    from atocore.memory.service import auto_promote_reinforced, create_memory
+    from atocore.models.database import get_connection
+    from datetime import datetime, timezone
+
+    mem_obj = create_memory("knowledge", "Some knowledge", status="candidate", confidence=0.7)
+    mid = mem_obj.id
+    now = datetime.now(timezone.utc).strftime("%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S")
+    with get_connection() as conn:
+        conn.execute(
+            "UPDATE memories SET reference_count = 1, last_referenced_at = ? WHERE id = ?",
+            (now, mid),
+        )
+
+    promoted = auto_promote_reinforced(min_reference_count=3, min_confidence=0.7)
+    assert mid not in promoted
+    mem = _get_memory_by_id(mid)
+    assert mem["status"] == "candidate"
+
+
+def test_expire_stale_candidates(isolated_db):
+    from atocore.memory.service import create_memory, expire_stale_candidates
+    from atocore.models.database import get_connection
+
+    mem_obj = create_memory("knowledge", "Old unreferenced fact", status="candidate")
+    mid = mem_obj.id
+    with get_connection() as conn:
+        conn.execute(
+            "UPDATE memories SET created_at = datetime('now', '-30 days') WHERE id = ?",
+            (mid,),
+        )
+
+    expired = expire_stale_candidates(max_age_days=14)
+    assert mid in expired
+    mem = _get_memory_by_id(mid)
+    assert mem["status"] == "invalid"
+
+
+def test_expire_stale_candidates_keeps_reinforced(isolated_db):
+    from atocore.memory.service import create_memory, expire_stale_candidates
+    from atocore.models.database import get_connection
+
+    mem_obj = create_memory("knowledge", "Referenced fact", status="candidate")
+    mid = mem_obj.id
+    with get_connection() as conn:
+        conn.execute(
+            "UPDATE memories SET reference_count = 1, "
+            "created_at = datetime('now', '-30 days') WHERE id = ?",
+            (mid,),
+        )
+
+    expired = expire_stale_candidates(max_age_days=14)
+    assert mid not in expired
+    mem = _get_memory_by_id(mid)
+    assert mem["status"] == "candidate"